Redeye Update: Addnode Group: Under unwarranted pressure

Addnode’s report for the first quarter of 2016 was more or less as we had expected with some deviation at the profitability levels, especially within PLM. The company reported a net sale of SEK 541m with an EBITA-margin of 5. 7%. The transition to the new sales model for Autodesk licenses has started to affect the revenue and margin levels; this will continue throughout the year.

We welcome the change as the long-term underlying business volume and margins will most likely increase. However, we believe the share has, and will be under unwarranted in response to this alteration creating an attractive window of opportunity. Our Base-case Fair value estimate is lowered to 57 (61) SEK per share, due to minor estimate adjustments and the dividend correction of 2 SEK per share.

The stock price is now trading roughly 16% of our Fair value estimate, which is amongst the highest levels we have seen in the past two years. In our view, the valuation level indicates an increasingly attractive risk-reward situation to invest in one of Nasdaq Stockholm Small Cap’s most renowned serial acquirers.