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Motion Display: Better than expected, improved outlook for H2 - Introduce

Sales +3% y-o-y on easy comps (+13% vs. ABGSCe)
Similar to Q1, COVID-19 took a heavy toll on Motion Display (MODI) in Q2. Sales were SEK 5.7m vs. ABGSCe at SEK 5.0m, corresponding to y-o-y growth of +3% (although against easy comps). The gross margin was strong at 56%, driven by a good sales mix. Furthermore, opex declined 33% q-o-q, stemming from good costs control as well as from governmental subsidies (which amounted to SEK 0.66m in Q2).

Encouraging outlook for Q3
Despite the tough H1’20, we note that MODI ended Q2 with an order book of SEK 4.9m. We think that this, together with its Q2 report wording, which stated that it has already received orders of SEK 4m in Q3, bodes well for sequential improvements in the coming quarter. We raise our 2020e sales forecast by 23% due to the Q2 sales beat and the positive words regarding Q3. We now forecast Q3 sales of SEK 7.6m, up from SEK 3.1m. In terms of Q3 EBIT, we see a figure of SEK 0.2m, driven by the higher sales and our assessment that costs should remain suppressed.

3% ’19-‘22e sales CAGR, 1.0x ‘21e EV/sales
MODI has recently launched some new products, which we think could give some tailwinds to its financials in the coming quarters. On our new estimates, we see a ’19-‘22e sales CAGR of 3%. While we estimate positive cash flows in H2’20e, cash at the end of Q2 was only SEK 0.2m, which we think suggests that further capital injections might be required in order to create a liquidity buffer. Its share is currently trading at 1.0x ‘21e EV/sales.


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