Pihlajalinna: Focus on the tender offer - Evli Research
The pandemic hampered especially non-urgent healthcare
Pihlajalinna’s April-June revenue of EUR 114.7m (-11.6% y/y) was slightly above our expectation of EUR 112.1m. Adj. EBITDA was EUR 9.0m vs. our EUR 9.1m and adj. EBIT was EUR 0.6m vs. our EUR 0.2m. Complete outsourcings and other fixed priced invoicing supported the company throughout Q2 (profitability of these remains relatively stable despite of the demand situation). The situation didn’t also have significant impacts on the demand of housing services for elderly, recruitment services, public surgical operations or fertility treatments. Customer flows and demand decreased especially in private clinics and dental clinics. Revenue of Forever-fitness centers declined by over 80 percent y/y, resulting from the temporarily closure of the centers.
Releasing pent-up demand
According to the company, the biggest drop in demand is now behind and as the pent-up demand has started to release, the customer flows in private clinics, occupational healthcare services and dental care services have recovered relatively well and the demand is closer to a normal situation. As the restrictions impacted the most on the demand of non-urgent healthcare services, there are bottlenecks in the treatment queues especially on the public side. This could potentially further increase the customer flows of the private sector. However, the increasing number of new coronavirus infections is indicating a new wave, which increases uncertainties and makes the visibility of H2 blurry.
“HOLD” with TP of EUR 16.0
The tender offer by Mehiläinen is currently being under review of the FCCA (phase two investigation). The deadline for the investigation is 27th of August (plus possible extension period). Based on the current information, if the tender offer is approved, the process is expected to be completed during Q3. We have only made minor adjustment to our estimates after the Q2 result. We expect 20E revenue of EUR 517m (-0.3% y/y) and adj. EBIT of EUR 22.3m. We keep our TP at the tender offer price of EUR 16.0 and retain our rating “HOLD”