Formpipe Q4’19: Earnings above forecast due to solid cost control

Both Adj. EBITDA and EBIT beat our forecast by SEK ~3m (20-25%). While the sales, as well as the sales mix, were in line with our estimate, OPEX decreased both YoY and relative to Q2 2019 (Q3 is not comparable due to vacations) and came in 5% below our forecast. The ACV was slightly lower than we expected, but the SaaS growth in 2019 has mainly taken place in the private sector, which is promising.

Like in Q3, management is expecting a stronger public market in both Sweden and Denmark in 2020. With an improving public sector and a high likelihood of maintaining robust growth in the private sector, the prospects for 2020 looks fine. However, an increasing SaaS-share will likely postpone some of the effects on earnings.

We will likely raise our EBIT forecast and Base case slightly, mainly due to reduced OPEX forecasts.