Catena - Capturing the strong logistics wave
NOI up ~5% to SEK 259m, consensus at SEK 258m 6% vacancy temporary – underlying momentum remains 3. 7% value uplifts due to strong market (ABGSCe 0. 5%) Recurring PTP up 6% to SEK 188 was in line with cons. An eventful quarter showed key P&L items roughly in line with consensus figures.
NOI grew by ~5% y-o-y to SEK 259m (249m), vs. cons at SEK 258m and ABGSCe at 268m. The large vacancy rate change to 6.
1% (4. 6% in Q1’20, in 3. 8% Q4’20) is explained by the 38,000 sqm takeover of Nelly’s new storage facility in February 2021 that is accessed first in January 2022.
Recurring PTP increased to SEK 188 (177), 1% vs. cons and -3% vs. ABGSCe.
This takes CEPS growth (adj. in Q1’20 for new number of shares) to 8. 4% and an adjusted N12m cash yield of 8.
7%. 49% higher EPRA NAVPS after new equity raise (~SEK 1. 3bn) The acquisition on 22 February in Morgongåva was in part paid by newly issued equity (SEK 200m).
In addition, an accelerated book-building on 31 March (~SEK 1. 1bn) further strengthened the company’s financial position. These activities added ~3.
5m shares (8. 6% dilution); if we add this to our y-o-y comparison for EPRA NAVPS in Q1 (already adj. for DPS), the result is 49% (we expected 37%).
The beat came from larger than expected value uplifts to existing properties of 3. 7% (ABGSCe was 0. 8%).
We have repeatedly seen larger than forecast yield compressions on logistics properties throughout this reporting season, and the Q1 report strengthens this trend. After the added equity, Catena took the opportunity to update its financial targets to more appealing levels for future funding, i. e.
interest coverage ratio to 2x (1. 75x) and equity ratio to above 40% ( 30% previously). 2021e P/CE of 21x is in line with the sector average The Catena share is up 80% since its trough in March 2020 and 7% year to date.
The 2021e P/CE of 21. 0x is in line with the sector average at 21. 7x and now 10% below the closest logistics peer in our coverage, Stendörren.
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