Fastpartner - Cold start, but warmer times to come
Q1 NOI margin down to 66. 7% (68. 2%) vs. ABGSCe 68.
4% EPRA NAVPS at SEK 85 (77) -1% vs. ABGSCe ‘21e P/CE of 20x is ~6% below sector average Slow Q1, but rest of ‘21e should be better Rental income was 3% below ABGSCe at SEK 463m (448m), and NOI 5% below at SEK 308m (306m) due to a larger effect from the cold winter than we had expected. The CEO noted that the tough times of the past 12 months is coming to an end, and with the normalisation seen where vaccinations have rolled out already, he expressed his optimism for ‘21.
Q1 net interest income of SEK -70m was 5% less than expected due to higher interest income (11m vs. ABGSCe 5m). However, as central admin was somewhat higher, recurring PTP, like NOI, was ~5% below ABGSCe.
FPAR’s target of +10% rec. PTP per common share p. a.
will with current forecasts be reached in ’22 (11%), but will it need additions from primarily transactions to raise our estimates in ‘21 and ‘23 from today’s 8%. +0. 3% value uplift, larger revisions to come in ‘21e Property value revisions were SEK 100m, or 0.
3% (we expected 0. 8%). EPRA NAVPS (adj.
for D and pref. shares) was SEK 85. 3 (ABGSCe 86.
1), or up 2% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y (adj. for DPS); we expect +3% q-o-q for Q2 & 3, and +4% in Q4 when the projects in Märsta and Hemsta are expected to generate income. Q1 net LTV stood firm at 46.
1%, but NIBD/EBIT rose to 12. 2x (11. 1x in Q4’20 and 12x in Q1’20 – ABGSCe 11.
4x) from lower than expected EBIT in the quarter. Trading slightly below sector average Fastpartner has historically traded at multiples well above the sector average but it is now slightly below, at 20. 2x the ’21e P/CE vs.
the sector average of 20. 7x. On ’21e P/EPRA NAV (adj.
), the share is trading on a par with the sector average at 100%. The five-year average on P/EPRA NAV last reported is ~15% above the sector average, but the growth during that period was higher than what we can expect in the next three years.
