GOMspace - FY’20 guidance upgrade ahead of Q4’20

Revenue guidance up to SEK 185m-200m (160m-185m) Expecting a strong order backlog for FY’21 “New Space” likely to see continued momentum FY’20 revenue fueled by expedited executions GomSpace has upgraded its FY’20 revenue guidance to SEK 185m-200m (160m-185m) vs. ABGSCe at SEK 193m (4% to -3% vs. new guidance) and FactSet consensus of SEK 171m (-8 to -15% vs. new guidance).

The upgrade is predominantly due to the expedited execution of sub-contracting in Luxembourg. Good momentum in the Americas in December 2020 Going into the Q4’20 report, we expect the company to report a strong order backlog for FY’21, given the great momentum in securing orders, with two new (public) orders secured in the Americas in December 2020, accounting for ~ SEK 12m (~5% of expected FY’21 revenue) to be delivered in FY’21. Both include components with above group average gross margins.

Furthermore, with the recent acquisition of close GomSpace competitor, Blue Canyon, by Raytheon (in December 2020), we see this as an important stamp of approval from “old” space companies of the “new” space companies, while also indicating the interest the industry has in “new space”. We believe that this increased interest in “new” space companies is accompanied by a continued interest by governments to operate small satellites (as evidenced by GomSpace’s new orders and partnership with the Colombian government). Scenario valuation range increase to SEK 8-46 (7-44) While adjusting our estimates for the FY’20 upgrade and also further increasing our future estimates to reflect a stronger expectation to the future order backlog and the margins of these, we increase our scenario valuation range to SEK 8-44 (7-44).