GreenMobility - Guidance reiterated despite slow quarter
Low activity in CPH challenges break-even… …but target of FY’21 profit in CPH reiterated 2021 guidance kept and ~DKK 150m share raise planned COVID-19 challenges the operational break-even level GreenMobility posted group Q1 revenue growth of 73%, resulting in revenue of DKK 11m (~-20% vs. ABGSCe at DKK 14m), an EBITDA of DKK -12m (31% vs. ABGSCe) and EBIT of DKK -17m (27% vs. ABGSCe).
The company posted 40% growth in Denmark, split between Copenhagen and Aarhus, with high growth in the number of customers and activity that outweighed to some degree the lower average prices. The management says they are satisfied with the quarter, and revenue and costs were lower than expected due to the slower roll-out of new cities due to ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns. From the 950 EV’s currently in operation, the KPI’s were DKK 12k revenue per EV (break-even point is DKK 22k), with 124k total customers, 185k trips, an avg.
of 46 minutes of driving and thus 1.5 trips per customer. We estimated a higher number of trips and thus a better price mix for the quarter. Due to the COVID-19 restrictions, revenue in Sweden, Belgium and Finland was lower than our estimates at DKK 1m, DKK 0.6m and DKK 0.2m during the quarter, respectively, which equals revenue per EV at ~DKK 4k ex-Denmark.
Copenhagen was also loss-making generating ~DKK 19k/EV. DKK 150m equity raise expected within six months The company reiterated its guidance for 2021 of DKK 70-80m (ABGSCe: DKK 70m) in revenue and DKK -100-110m (ABGSCe: DKK -101m) of EBT. GreenMobility plans to raise up to DKK 150m over the next six months, likely in one round, and has secured some working-capital funding from its bank while looking into financing options for its 200 self-owned EVs in Sweden and Finland.
In our estimates, we advance the DKK 150m share raise to 2021e and 2022e (prev. 2022/23e) on today’s share price (DKK 180). Technically, our EPS is increased, due to the negative estimated earnings for 2021-22.
We reduce EBIT by ....