Poolia - Strong start to the year

Uniflex Sweden shines in Q1 ’22e-’23e EBIT up 11%-8% Trading at EV/EBIT of 11. 4x for ’21e, div. yield 5. 4% Q1: Net sales growth of 17% y-o-y, 9% ahead of ABGSCe Poolia reported Q1 net sales of SEK 432m (370m), corresponding to y-o-y growth of 17% (+9% vs ABGSCe).

The deviation was driven by Uniflex Sweden, which started the year with a bang and reported 33% y-o-y growth (+16% vs ABGSCe). In addition, Poolia Sweden recovered faster than expected with its 9% y-o-y growth, which was offset by lower activity in Germany. Revenues from Germany were down roughly 50% y-o-y as the country continued to be burdened by strict COVID-19 restrictions.

EBIT for the group was SEK 11. 9m (1. 7m), SEK 7.

5m ahead of ABGSCe. Here, the deviation was entirely explained by stronger than expected EBIT in Uniflex Sweden, which experienced higher than normal efficiency in conjunction with lower opex. We still think the long-term margin in Uniflex Sweden should be in the range 2.

5-3. 0%, but given the strong start to 2021 we think the margin will be higher than that in ’21. Recovery driven by Uniflex Sweden, Germany still lagging The staffing industry usually performs strongly after a crisis as companies want to be flexible when times are uncertain.

This was evident after the financial crisis when the staffing industry performed strongly from 2009-2011, and we think a similar scenario could materialise in 2021. We raise our sales estimates by 5%-4% following the Q1 report, mainly because of higher expectations for Uniflex Sweden. The increase in our EBIT estimates is 21%-8%, also driven by Uniflex Sweden, where we forecast temporarily higher EBIT for ‘21e after the strong start to the year.

Both our sales and EBIT adjustments are negatively impacted by our view on the German market, where tighter COVID restrictions are acting as a headwind for a recovery and where we now forecast breakeven in Q3 and the top line to start recovering from Q4. Share trading at EV/EBIT of 11. 4x for ’21e.