Pricer - Estimate beat, strong order intake momentum
Sales +74% y-o-y, 10% above ABGSCe We raise our estimates by 3-7% after the strong results 24x ‘22e EV/EBIT, ’19-‘22e EBIT CAGR of 19% Strong Q1 results Pricer had a strong start to 2021. Sales were SEK 393m, +74% y-o-y and +10% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 358m. This was driven by a strong ESL market, and we estimate that Pricer has recently gained market share.
We estimate that Best Buy accounted for ~SEK 50m of Q1 sales, meaning that sales excl. Best Buy grew 52% y-o-y, which demonstrates the company’s strong momentum across numerous customers and markets. Orders of SEK 443m were even stronger, also supported by Pricer’s recent framework agreements (e.
g. with CTDA). We judge that the recent supply chain issues had a relatively low impact on deliveries in Q1, but that the impact on gross margins was material.
Even so, the strong sales growth gave EBIT of SEK 17m (4. 4% margin), beating our forecast of SEK 11m by 61%. Raised estimates from Pricer’s strong momentum We expect Pricer’s momentum to continue over the coming quarters and raise ’21e, ’22e and ’23e sales by 7%, 4% and 3% respectively after the Q1 report.
This lifts the respective EBIT estimates by 7%, 5% and 5%. We expect the order intake to remain strong, but that the industry’s electronic component shortage will hurt gross margins and burden sales in the near term. Overall, this means that we expect 2021 sales of SEK 1,668m, down 5% vs.
2020 due to challenging comps, with a margin of 7. 4% (9. 0% in 2020).
Beyond 2021, we expect sales growth to pick up again, also trickling down to higher margins due to operational leverage. Tough comps in H2, but order intake should remain robust In terms of sales and EBIT, we note that Pricer faces easy comps in Q2, but that things get significantly tougher in H2. However, this should be no news to the market, and we expect orders to remain strong during this period.
On our new 2022 estimates and at the current share price, we see a valuation of 24x EV/EBIT and 27x P/E.