Pricer - Strong sales growth set to continue in Q1

Q1 report due Friday, 23 April Slightly lowered estimates due to messy supply chain… …but well-positioned to benefit from strong market trends We expect a solid Q1e; sales +58% y-o-y, EBIT +47% y-o-y We forecast Q1 sales of SEK 358m, +58% y-o-y, driven by solid underlying momentum in the ESL market together with recent order announcements. We expect Best Buy-related sales of ~SEK 50m, yielding sales excl. Best Buy of SEK 308m, up 36% y-o-y. We fear that recent news regarding supply chain issues will also have an impact on Pricer’s operations in Q1e, hurting the company’s sales.

That said, we anticipate the impact on FY’21e sales to be modest. Moreover, we note that freight rates are still elevated, and we therefore expect a gross margin of 24. 3% in Q1e (vs.

22. 5% in Q4). We forecast opex of SEK 76m, representing +20% y-o-y as the company has continued to invest in the organisation during 2020.

In terms of EBIT, we see a figure of SEK 11m, corresponding to a margin of 3. 0% and up 47% y-o-y. Furthermore, we expect orders of SEK 354m (of which orders of SEK 110m have been announced in the quarter).

Sales estimates largely intact, but we cut ’21e EBIT by 5% We keep our ’21e-’23e sales estimates relatively intact but lower our gross margin assumptions slightly due to the supply chain situation, where access to some electronic components has been scarce. As a result, we lower our ’21e EBIT by 5%, but with modest revisions to our ’22e-’23e EBIT. 23x 2022e EV/EBIT, 2.

5% FCF yield We remain confident that the ESL market will progress well over the coming years and that Pricer is well-positioned to benefit from these trends. We expect the company to reach 2023e sales of SEK 2,074m, corresponding to a ’19-’23e CAGR of 20%. On our new estimates and at the current share price, we see a valuation of 24x ’22e EV/EBIT.