Stendörren - Awaiting the portfolio potential
Modest income trend offset by low costs +88% recurring PTP in 2020 (-25%) Building rights portfolio remains large at SEK 1. 4bn 2020: Positive net lettings in Q1, Q3 & Q4 Total income (rental + other income) amounted to SEK 171m (148m) in Q4 ’20 vs. ABGSCe at SEK 162m, and to SEK 651m (592m) for FY ’20. Premature lease redemption and insurance compensation of SEK 20m had a positive effect on the FY figures.
NOI grew by 23% for the year. Central admin was flat at SEK -87m with 2019, and combined with lowered net financials, recurring PTP was SEK 254m (135m) for FY ’20 and SEK 64m (18m) in Q4 vs. ABGSCe of SEK 53m.
Net lettings came in at SEK 3. 5m and added up to SEK 12. 9m (27m) for the year.
Renegotiated rents increased rental values by 29% in 2020 and 16% in Q4. Cash earnings per share (CEPS) grew by 68% in 2020 (we expected 60%) and landed at SEK 7. 1 for FY ’20 and SEK 1.
8 in Q4. We estimate ’20-’22 EPRA NAVPS growth of ~12% per year Stendörren reported EPRA NAVPS of SEK 137, in line with our estimates. Property value uplifts for Q4 amounted to 0.
7%, beating our 0. 5% estimate. For 2020, values rose by 1.
1% (2. 7% in 2019). New mgmt.
has focused mainly on the existing portfolio to evaluate potential. With a building rights portfolio of SEK 1. 4bn and a deleveraged balance sheet, we see potential for future investments.
The yield requirement stands at 6. 0% and NIY at 6. 3%, indicating room for added yield compression.
We appraise a cash contribution to NAV of 5-6% p. a. , resulting in the EPRA NAVPS increasing annually by 12% to SEK 153 in ‘21e and SEK 172 in ’22e.
Our negative ’21 estimate changes are due to later than expected completion of the mega project GreenHub Bro. 7% sector average but building rights potential not priced in Stendörren’s stock is lagging logistic peers YTD (down ~8% vs. +1%) but above average in the L6M (up ~22% vs.
17%). Logistics companies have performed better than the broad real estate sector’ The real estate sector is d.
