Stendörren - Falling recurring PTP, rising EPRA NAVPS
Cold weather and rental loss behind drop in NOI Commitment to resi development declared post-Q1 2021e P/CEPS of 27x is above sector average by 27% Recurring PTP fell 5% adj. for one-off, -5% vs. ABGSCe Rental income grew 2% and came in at SEK 161m (ABGSCe 166m), with a slight decline like-for-like due to a marginal uptick in vacancies. Property costs of SEK 45m (34m) vs.
ABGSCe at SEK 43m were primarily up due to cold weather (SEK 6m) and due to rental losses (SEK 3m). Uncertain debt received fell to SEK 2. 4m (5.
8m, 5. 9m & 2. 9m in Q4, Q3 & Q2, respectively).
Net operating income was SEK 111m (118m). Recurring pretax profit fell 15%, but stayed at 5% adj. for a one-off related to an earlier than planned bond redemption.
After the quarter, Stendörren announced the decision to develop residential units for the first time (~350, in Botkyrka). It also announced the appointment of a manager responsible for residential development. EPRA NAVPS to SEK 144 (130), vs.
ABGSCe SEK 140 In the quarter, property value revisions were SEK 169m, corresponding to 1. 8% (ABGSCe 0. 5%).
This led to an 11% y-o-y increase in EPRA NAVPS despite a cash earnings drop to SEK 1. 4 per share (1. 7).
We retain our value change prognosis for Q2e-Q4e, but raise 2021e to 3. 8% (2. 5%) because of the Q1 uplift.
Last 12-months’ cash yield (CE/EPRA NAV) was down to 5. 3% (5. 6% in Q4) and next 12 months’ is at the same level.
We adjust our rental income forecasts by SEK 4m, SEK 3m and SEK 3m in the next three sequential quarters to better adjust for the earnings potential of the current portfolio. Share 29% above Catena on ’21e P/CE, 16% below on P/NAV Stendörren’s share rose 29% in the last three months, compared to NP3 (28%), Sagax (23%), Catena (8%) and the Carnegie Real Estate Index (3%). The company’s ’21e P/CEPS of 27.
2x is 24% above the sector average of 21. 2x and 29% above Catena, Stendörren’s closest peer. On the company’s P/EPRA NAVPS last reported (130%), the share trad.