Svedbergs - Q2 to reveal continued strong demand

Q2 due on Friday 16 July We expect sales of SEK 195m, adj. EBITA of SEK 26m Fair value range unchanged at SEK 29-67 per share Q2 to confirm demand picture Svedbergs will report its Q2 numbers on Friday 16 July. We expect the company to show sales growth of 21% (6% organic 15% M&A 0% FX) for sales of SEK 195m, with the main growth driver being the Cassoe acquisition. On the margin side, we expect an adj.

EBITA margin of 13.5%, a 0.8pp increase y-o-y. While a significant portion is driven by the Cassoe profitability, we are somewhat cautious and look forward to the comments regarding supply chains, input prices and potential countereffects the company has been able to put into effect. We make minor estimate revisions before the report on Friday, reducing the Q2 gross margin slightly on raw mat/supply chain caution.

All-in-all, we lower adj. EBITA by 1% ‘21e, while leaving ‘22e-‘23e relatively unchanged. Positive industry comments We note continuous strong demand across the home improvement space.

Before Q2, we saw strong pre-announced results and/or guidance upgrades from the likes of Byggmax, Kesko and Fiskars. Furthermore, the Bufab CEO stated today that the company sees no slowdown in demand within categories such as kitchens and bathrooms; “/…/on the contrary, we have noted an order intake in the quarter that substantially exceeded net sales”. The question seems to be about execution at this point, as we understand that companies have low visibility in the supply chain due to all of the external factors, which potentially could lower margins before pricing initiatives are introduced.

Fair value range unchanged at SEK 29-67 On our updated estimates, the Svedbergs share is trading at a ’21e-’23e adj. EV/EBITA of 12x-10x, corresponding to the share trading 18%-16% below our peer group. On the back of minor estimate changes, we are leaving our fair value range of SEK 29-67 per share unchanged..