Trianon - Double-digit growth and an eventful quarter
Recurring PTP grew 26% to SEK 244m for FY’20 SEK 500m Burlöv acquisition main positive in Q4 +0. 91% value revisions in Q4, +4. 7% in 2020 SEK 8m net letting and +23% renovated apartments in 2020 NOI grew by 29% in 2020, to SEK 369m, and Q4 at SEK 99m was 8% above ABGSCe. We estimate that ~SEK 55-60m of the FY’20 SEK 369m comes from acquired properties based on SEK 1,250m in property values and Trianon’s stated avg.
yield of 4. 6%. EO charges relating to the milestone listing on Nasdaq mid-cap burdened recurring PTP by SEK 6.
5m, which was in line with our estimate at SEK 55m. The existing portfolio remains strong, with positive net lettings of SEK 8m (20m) and 132 (107) renovated apartments – it now targets 200 renovated apartments in ‘21. DPS was proposed at SEK 1.
80 (0. 0 after withdrawing the initial SEK 1. 45 due to COVID-19), which represents ~30% of CEPS (cash earnings per share).
We lift estimates following the Burlöv acquisition and based on the proven underlying growth. EPRA NAVPS grew by 6% in Q4 and 22% in 2020 Value revisions in Q4 were SEK 85m (71m) or 0. 91% of the total property portfolio.
The large beat on our numbers (we expected 0. 25%) mainly derives from upwards revisions to the JV properties in Burlöv, acquired in Dec (Trianon’s 50% investment share is SEK 250m). However, Trianon wrote down the external valuer’s figure by 25% as a precaution due to uncertainty with the pandemic.
Hence, there is inherent upside value potential in Burlöv. Profitability continued to grow in the existing portfolio, as the occupancy rate increased to 94. 5% (93.
5%). A lot of loans were renegotiated in Q4, which increased the capital tie-up period to 1. 6 yrs (0.
6) Trianon’s EPRA NAVPS adj. for hybrids increased to SEK 101, +22% in a year. Trading at 20x ’21e P/CE vs.
sector average of 18x The share is trading at a ‘21e P/CE of 20x vs. the sector average of 18x. Trianon’s ‘21e P/EPRA NAV is 128%, which is above the sector average of 93%.
Howe.
