Concordia Maritime - Market remains weak
Q1’21 bookings higher than our expectations New financing for dry-docking capex Challenging market outlook as stocks are drawn Miss due to lower than expected TC-out rates Q4’20 EBITDA was SEK -5m vs. ABGSCe at SEK 12m, with the miss partially driven by lower than expected realized TC-out rates. Realised spot rates were higher for the product tankers at USD 11kpd (vs. ABGSCe at USD 10kpd and in line for the Suezmaxes, at USD 10kpd (vs.
ABGSCe at USD 10kpd). CCOR rates were lower by 25% y-o-y for product tankers while Suezmax rates were lower by 77% y-o-y. Q1’21 bookings and estimate revisions CCOR booked 49% of product tanker open days in Q1’21 at USD 10kpd vs.
our estimate of USD 8kpd for the quarter. For the Suezmax tankers (owned and ~1. 7 vessels on ST charter), 46% of open days were booked at USD 12kpd, which is above our Q1’21 estimate of USD 7kpd.
While these booked rates are higher than our expectations, spot rates remain around opex levels, and we do not make any changes to our expected 2021e product tanker and Suezmax rates of USD 10kpd and USD 15kpd, respectively. Furthermore, for 2021e we increase our opex assumptions to better reflect the higher proportion of Suezmaxes in the fleet. Our 2021e estimate changes are small nominally but large in terms of percentage.
For 2022e, we adjust our Suezmax tanker spot rate estimate to USD 27kpd (USD 29kpd), while for 2023e we use the same estimates for both segments (USD 18kpd for product tankers, USD 27kpd for Suezmaxes). New financing for dry-docking capex During the quarter, CCOR secured a new facility for USD 19m for previous and future instalments of BWTS, of which it drew USD 7. 2m in Q4’20 (SEK 60m).
Moreover, the Stena Finance facility was upsized to USD 15m from USD 10m. With the new facilities, available liquidity stands at ~USD 46m (SEK 378m), vs. estimated dry-docking and upgrade capex of ~USD 15m in 2021e/2022e.
