Concordia Maritime - Rates at opex, challening year ahead
We expect Q4’20 EBITDA of SEK 12m 2021e EBITDA reduced to SEK 66m (SEK 205m) We expect Q4’20 EBITDA of SEK 12m Suezmax rates in Q4’20 have averaged ~USD 6. 5kpd (down 47% q-o-q and down 91% y-o-y), below the CBE of ~USD 25kpd. MR tankers were at ~USD 6. 4kpd per day (down 29% q-o-q and down 68% y-o-y), beneath their CBE of ~USD 17kpd.
In our estimates, we reduce our expected CCOR Suezmax tanker and product tanker Q4’20 realised rates to USD10kpd (USD 12kpd) and USD 10kpd (USD 11kpd), respectively. Adjusting for a strong SEK to the USD (8. 6 vs.
8. 9 before), we reduce our Q4’20 EBITDA to SEK 12m (SEK 24m). 2021 estimate changes Given our cautious view on the tanker market, we lower our CCOR 2021e spot rate assumptions to USD 15kpd (USD 20kpd) for Suezmaxes and USD 10kpd (USD 13kpd) for MRs.
Specifically for Q1’21, we expect bookings from CCOR to be at levels ~USD 7kpd for Suezmax tankers, and ~USD 8kpd for the product tankers. Given these revisions, our 2021e EBITDA is reduced to SEK 66m (SEK 205m). The percentage changes are large primarily due to numbers being small.
Challenging market ahead The tanker market is facing three major headwinds: 1) OPEC+ micromanaging the oil market reducing oil price volatility; 2) stock draws expected to continue throughout 2021; 3) oil price backwardation. We forecast global crude oil trade in 2021 to reach 2018-19 levels, leaving vessel scrapping as the only tool to balance the market. However, we expect owners, comforted by liquidity cushions, to refrain from aggressively scrapping, thus leaving the tanker market oversupplied.
