Pihlajalinna: Pandemic hampers non-urgent healthcare - Evli Research

Expecting weak demand in non-urgent healthcare

Pihlajalinna’s operations were heavily impacted by the emergency laws that came into force in mid-March. We expect to see the most negative impacts in April as especially the demand of non-urgent healthcare and oral healthcare started rapidly to decrease in late March. The management indicated earlier in H1 that the complete outsourcings and other fixed-priced invoicing have supported the company during the unexceptional times as the profitability of these kinds of contracts normally remains stable, even during times of lower demand. The demand of housing services for the elderly and recruitment services should also remain relatively stable.

Still waiting for the FCCA’s decision

We expect the customer flows have started slowly to recover. However, we expect to see better improvement later in H2’E as the pent-up demand of social services and non-urgent healthcare should normalize after the restrictions were lifted. The visibility of H2E remains blurry and the demand is depended on the pandemic situation. The tender offer by Mehiläinen is still being under review of the FCCA and the second phase investigation should be ready by the end of August. If approved, the process is expected to be completed during Q3’20E.

"HOLD” with TP of EUR 16.0

We have only made minor adjustments to our estimates. We expect Q2’20E revenue of EUR 112.1m (-13.6% y/y) and adj. EBIT of EUR 0.2m (EUR 2.1m in Q2’19). We expect 20E revenue of EUR 517m (-0.3% y/y) and adj. EBIT of EUR 22.3m (6.7% y/y). We keep our rating “HOLD” and TP of EUR 16.0 intact.

https://pankki.evli.com/hubfs/ERP/Raportit/Pihlajalinna/Pihlajalinna%20preview%20100820.pdf

Research feed