H1 an exceptional period.Financial markets in H1 were affected by heavy volatility as market turmoil in Q1 turned to a strong recovery in Q2. Overall, we expect H1 to be Taaleri’s weakest half-year report since it was listed, with operating profit at EUR1m (EUR6.4m in H1 19). We estimate that the exceptional market turmoil hit mostly Garantia’s investment operations and to a smaller extent management fees, given decreased assets under management (AuM). However, the strong market recovery means Garantia’s investment income is not as bad as we had feared in March, and also that operations are set to normalise in H2, provided financial markets are stable.
As the earnings slump is only temporary and the fundamentals for natural resource alternative investments, Taaleri’s core expertise, are intact, we do not read too much into the weak figures expected in H1..