Qben Infra Q1: Under Construction, note the seasonality - ABG

Seasonally weak quarter, but 2025 guidance firm
'25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 8-1%
ABGSCe FVR of SEK 7-21 (10-21), trading at 7-4x '25e-'27e EBITA


Q1 highlights

Qben Infra's Q1 report showed lower-than-expected sales of SEK 507m vs. ABGSCe of SEK 618m. Pro forma, y-o-y growth was 47% due to good order intake. Looking ahead, management commented on intensive tender activity and contracts won, which have led to an order book of SEK 2,379m, as well as good M&A activity. Profitability in Q1 is seasonally weak, at SEK -28m on adj. EBITA corresponding to a -5.5% adj. EBITA margin, and was held back by weakness in the Construction and Inspekt segments. Additionally, the group incurred higher costs. Looking at pro forma numbers, adjusted EBITA moved in the right direction, going from SEK -35m in Q1'24 to SEK -28m in Q1'25. We expect organic growth in Q2-Q4 along with improved margins due to good order intake, cost control and synergies. These should drive adj. EBITA growth in Q2-Q4, although from a low base. Cash flow was solid when adjusted for financial costs due to the bond refinancing (SEK -62m) and an increase in working capital of SEK 25m, yielding a pro forma gearing ratio of 4.11x (comp. def.).

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