Bredband2: Costs synergies starting to materialise - ABG

Q2 results entailed visible cost synergies
Bredband2’s Q2 results were solid. Although the customer intake suffered from the migration of A3’s customers into BRE2 (our best assessment is a negative customer intake of 1,000-5,000 q-o-q), sales grew 1% q-o-q. The gross margin remained stable at 34.3% (vs. 34.2% in Q1), which was encouraging. Costs synergies with A3 are starting to materialise, with a sequential decline in costs of 6%. In H1, the company has, for example, exploited synergies relating to personnel, offices (two offices have recently been closed), purchasing agreements with suppliers, and A3’s consulting division has been divested.

More cost synergies expected in H2; growth to prevail in ‘22
We continue to expect more synergies, with sequentially decreasing opex in the coming quarters. While the company wants to recruit more salespeople in H2 to strengthen its focus on SMEs, we believe that it is currently overstaffed in other parts of the organisation to support the migration of A3’s customers. While the migration of A3’s private customers is completed, we believe that churn will remain elevated in Q3 and part of Q4 due to lead times. For 2022, however, we believe that growth rates will start to pick up, both fuelled by improved private and businesses sales. We forecast flat gross margins in the coming quarters, but we acknowledge that they could be hurt if the company decides to initiate aggressive marketing campaigns. That said, the fact that the company has improved its market position (both with suppliers and customers) from the merger with A3 should partly offset such negative effects. We keep sales intact in our forecast period but raise our EBIT by 1% for 2021e and 3% for 2022-2023e on greater confidence in synergies.

-0.4x ‘21e lease-adj. NIBD/EBITDA, 6% lease-adj. FCF yield
At the current levels and on our new estimates, the share is trading at 16-12x ’21-‘23e EV/EBITA while offering a 6-7% lease-adj. FCF yield.

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