Penneo: Q1 not as shabby as it initially looked - ABG

23% ARR growth: strong new sales, with churn and uplift weaker...
...but one-time effects meant it was not that shabby after all
'24e-'26e EBITDA up 1-7% (low numbers): FVR kept at DKK 6-14


Q1 initially looked soft on higher churn and weak uplift...

Penneo grew ARR by 23% y-o-y (vs. our 25% estimate), with strong ~16% new sales weighed down by churn of 5.5% (vs. ~4% avg. in '23) and weak uplift of ~13% (vs. ~17% avg.). Adj. EBITDA of DKK -3.7m came in lower than our DKK -1.9m estimate, due to the DKK 2.9m top-line miss. FCF incl. leases of DKK -8.2m, however, surprised positively on better NWC, making up for slightly higher capex.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2024/5/penneo---q1-not-as-shabby-as-it-initially-looked/