CapMan: A quarter of strong profitability - Nordea

CapMan’s Q3 fee income of EUR 15.2m grew 19% y/y and was slightly ahead with our estimate of EUR 14.6m. Fee profit of EUR 3.7m grew by 29% y/y and also beat our estimate of EUR 2.4m. Driven by better-than-expected fair value changes (EUR 4.8m vs. NDAe EUR 2.3m) group level adjusted EBIT of EUR 8.5m came above our estimate of EUR 5.6m. We expected EUR 0.8m of carry, while the company booked EUR 0.2m of carry, resulting in a EUR 0.1m net carry profitability impact. AuM grew to EUR 7.1bn (+17% YTD), mainly supported by the CAERUS Debt Investment acquisition and successful new capital raised in Real Estate. Overall, we consider the results solid both on the group and underlying level, with strong fair value changes being the key driver for above-expected profitability. We note that first close for NRE IV has been postponed to 2026 (previously: by end of year), while the European Forest Fund IV  is expected to hold the first close by the end of the current year (reiterated). Given the strong result, we expect a slight positive share price reaction today.

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