NoHo Partners: We are a tad below consensus ahead of Q3 - Nordea

NoHo Partners will publish its Q3 2025 results on 4 October, at around 8:00 EET. Although the Finnish consumer confidence is still below its historical average, the Nordea card data points to a slightly positive spending in restaurants during Q3 and we believe that NoHo has performed relatively well, thanks to its diversified portfolio, the acquisition of Halifax Burgers in Denmark (as of 1 May) and the rest of the Danish market, in particular. However, taking into account the separation of Better Burger Society, we expect NoHo's sales to decline by 14% y/y in Q3 and EBIT by 16%, implying a slightly softer margin of 9.1% (9.3% in Q3 2024). Our estimates are 4% below Vara  Research post-Q2 consensus on the top-line and 3% below on EBIT for Q3, but we note the uncertain impact of the separation of BBS. For 2025E, however, we are above consensus, and we do not believe it will be a challenge for the company to reach its guidance of improving EPS (our estimate: EUR 1.65 after 0.54 in 2024) and the Finnish EBIT margin to remain on a good level (our estimate: 10.2% after 10.1% in 2024).

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