Oil price is mostly fundamentals, not geopolitical risk premium

Brent crude has recovered to above USD 90/b again.

Risk premium due to Israel/Gaza. Maybe not so much at all.

Latest data from the IEA indicates that the global oil market ran an implied deficit of 2.

1 m b/d in August, a deficit of 0.

7 m b/d in September and a likely deficit of 1.

2.