Eolus: Solid Q1 but still navigating a mixed market - ABG

* Q1 EBIT of SEK 241m (vs. ABGSCe 334m)
* Roccasecca BESS sale and Fageråsen FID main Q1 contributors
* Project portfolio 15.4 GW; pipeline progressing across all key markets

Q1 results

Eolus reported Q1 EBIT of SEK 241m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 334m). The majority of the earnings came from the sale of the Roccasecca BESS project (127 MW) and an earn-out triggered by the Fageråsen wind project (238 MW). The group ended the quarter with net cash of SEK 452m, supported by SEK 605m in proceeds from Roccasecca. Despite the strengthened balance sheet, the Board proposed no FY25 dividend, citing restrictions in the company's bond terms. At the end of Q1'26, the project portfolio stood at 15.4 GW, and Kesemossen (SE3) received municipal approval during the quarter.

Estimate changes

We have made some adjustments in our project portfolio, and we therefore raise our total '26e-'27e EBIT estimates by SEK 13m after the Q1 report. Key items to watch into the remainder of 2026 are: 1) progress on the next US BESS transaction (Seaflower or successor projects), 2) the next Pienava milestone payment expected in Q4'26, and 3) any further sales out of the Swedish late-phase pipeline (e.g. onshore wind project Ölme, 73 MW).

Mixed market but back in a liquid position

The share is trading at '26e-'27e P/Es of 6x-8x, with the low multiples reflecting the company's volatile earnings trend and execution risk in future project sales. The European market remains mixed and management strikes a cautious tone on the macro backdrop, though recent Swedish data points (Fageråsen FID, Kesemossen approval) are encouraging. We still see project timing risk into '26e. However, we find it positive that Eolus has returned to its strengthened net cash position, providing flexibility to navigate a still-cautious market.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2026/5/eolus---solid-q1-but-still-navigating-a-mixed-market/