Gapwaves (Q1 Review): Topline cut, unit economics intact - Redeye

Gapwaves' Q1 net sales of SEK18.8m missed Redeye's SEK25.0m estimate by 25%, while adjusted EBITDA of SEK-7.3m beat by 44% on a higher gross margin (52% vs expected 40%) and a lower cost base. Redeye cuts 2026 net sales by 17% on a more gradual SmartMicro ramp, zeroed telecom and other verticals on macro uncertainty, and trimmed NRE assumptions; a higher gross margin and a lower cost base more than offset, raising adjusted EBITDA by 7%. The fair value range is held at SEK10–28 (base case SEK20). Shares fell 9% on the report, in line with Redeye's Initial take expectation. The medium-term thesis hinges on the Valeo volume ramp through the Frencken handover; trimming at Frencken began in April 2026 and is expected to constrain Q2 volumes, with material increases through H2. Redeye forecasts 1.0m Valeo units in 2026 and 4.3m total automotive units against Gapwaves' 4.5m automotive guidance, assuming ~100k net sequential quarterly adds and an exit Q4 2026 annualised Valeo revenue runrate of ~SEK28m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://www.redeye.se/research/1163558/gapwaves-q1-review-topline-cut-unit-economics-intact?utm_source=finwire&utm_medium=RSS