Medicover: Margins expand, despite slower growth - ABG

* +5%/+3% adj. EBITDA vs ABGSCe/Infront cons in Q3 * Cons estimates likely up 1-2% on adj. EBITDA '25e * Somewhat lower sales but profitability continues to improve Q3 results Medicover reported a solid Q3 with a miss on sales but a beat on adj. EBITDA (+5%/+3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons), with both segments showing improved profitability. Q3 sales came in at EUR 592m (-2% vs ABGSCe, -2% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +12% (ABGSCe +15%). Adj. EBITDA in Q3 was 102m (+5% vs. ABGSCe, +3% vs. cons), for a margin of 17.2% (ABGSCe 16.2%, cons 16.4%). Total NRI in Q3 was EUR -4m (ABGSCe -3m, cons -4m). The Q3 adj. EBITDA beat was driven by continued profitability improvements as utilisation rates in Healthcare Services combined with efficiency programmes, volume growth, and price increases in Diagnostic Services continues to support margin expansion. Cash flow from operating activities look strong in quarter, up 37% y-o-y. Outlook and estimate changes Management does not provide a specific outlook for 2025. Going forward, the company do however highlight that it expects a somewhat more moderate momentum in terms of margin expansion as it is seeing some early signs of a more cautious consumer and the launch of two new hospitals in India. Based on the Q3 deviation, FY'25 estimates are likely to be revised up by 1-2% on adj. EBITDA. Share view The stock has been weak going into the report (-7%, -5d) and given the earnings beat in today's report but slightly more cautious guidance on the coming quarters, we expect the share to trade up slightly, by a similar magnitude as today's expected estimate revisions.

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