Nolato: Impressive margin lift - ABG

Impressive margin lift in both segments, EBITA +6% vs. cons
We raise EBITA by 4-1%, of which -1pp from FX
16-14x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA, 60% of EBITA non-cyclical Medical


Impressive margin lift in both segments

Nolato reported Q1 sales 2% below Modular Finance IR consensus, but EBITA came in 6% above (and 3% above ABGSCe), as the segments reported impressive sequential margin lifts of 1.0pp and 0.9pp, respectively. Moreover, management expressed confidence on the conference call that there were no one-off effects boosting margins in the quarter, but rather that this should be considered a new base from which to further improve. We note that in its recent CMD, Nolato stated that its 12% EBITA margin target at the group-level is based on both segments gaining 2pp. Roughly 50% of this improvement was already realised in Q1, much quicker than was expected, and we now expect lesser margin lifts in the coming quarters. For Q2e, we model a sequential topline decline of 3%, primarily driven by adverse FX impacts, and an EBITA of SEK 268m, down 1% q-o-q, although this implies a 0.3pp margin increase.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2025/5/nolato---impressive-margin-lift/