Proact: Short-term headwinds - ABG

Adjusting the organisation, at cost of top line and near-term earnings
Expect Q2-Q3 headwinds; we cut '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 8-12%
Long-term margin story credible, with new CEO's track record


We expect weakness in Central and West in coming quarters

The Nordics & Baltic and the UK regions are performing well for Proact, while Central (mainly Germany) and West (Netherlands) are facing challenging markets and weak internal efficiencies. Increased competition from larger players like Bechtle and Cancom, which are also struggling with declining sales and reduced margins, makes the current market tough. Dell and NetApp growth expectations for the coming quarters are also set to fall somewhat. Having met the CEO in May (link), we expect to see actions taken in these regions to focus more on its core: storage and protection of business-critical data. We anticipate continued customer churn (as in Q1) on larger and lower-margin outsourcing contracts, while also reducing employees. We estimate negative organic growth in the coming two quarters and for margins to decline y-o-y, vs our previous expectation that was more flattish y-o-y. For Q2, we now expect organic growth of -5% and an adj. EBITA margin of 6.1% (7.6% last year), for an adj. EBITA of SEK 71m, down 26% y-o-y.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/6/proact---short-term-headwinds/