Sintercast: Market weakness persists, but strong pipeline - ABG

3.5m EEs, sales -13% (-8% FX), EBIT margin 36.2% (+5.3% FX)
We cut '25-27e EBIT 6%/7%/1% on automotive market headwinds
Market recovery, FAW & MAN ramp, Tupy order support '26e-'27e


Q2 expectations

We forecast EEs to come in at 3.5m in Q2, as we anticipate a seasonal up-tick in line with historical patterns from Q1's 3.1m. However, this still represents a 13% y-o-y decline, driven by the weakened automotive market and the program shutdown in H2'24. With SCs at 53k (57k) and equipment revenue of 2.4m (1.3m), we expect this will result in sales of SEK 30.7m, down 13% y-o-y, -8% of which is FX-related (due to weaker USD/SEK). On the adj. EBIT margin, we have 36.2% (37.2%), with a positive FX effect of 5.3% (0.6%).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/7/sintercast---market-weakness-persists-but-strong-pipeline/