SinterCast: Triple headwinds in Q4, but recovery in '25 - ABG

EE headwinds from programme end-of-life and automotive market
Mix effects and major FX revaluations likely to weigh on margin...
...but we forecast significant '25e recovery on strong installation activity


Q4 expectations

For Q4, we expect a production rate of 3.2m EEs, down 14% y-o-y, as the company faces headwinds from the 0.5m programme that reached end-of-life in September alongside a generally weakening automotive market. Despite this, we expect sales of SEK 36m, in line with last year, as the weaker series production revenue is offset by stronger equipment sales of SEK 7.4m (2.1m). The mix shift is negative for margins, however, as is the significant q-o-q strengthening of USD/SEK, which usually leads to negative FX revaluations. Given these factors, we forecast an EBIT margin of 17.8% (43.6%). The likely negative FX revaluations have a -13.7pp effect on the margin vs. last year when they had a positive effect of 11.4pp on the margin for a total -25.1pp y-o-y difference.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/1/sintercast---triple-headwinds-in-q4-but-recovery-in-25/