Tallinna Sadam: Number of passengers were up by 13% y/y and cargo volumes down by 31% y/y in Q2 - Nordea

Tallinna Sadam will publish Q2 results on 10 August 2023. Our forecast for net sales in Q2 has been EUR 31m but the most recent traffic statistic indicates that net sales could be somewhat lower.

Cargo volume decreased by 31% y/y in Q2 according to the company. Most of the decrease in cargo is related to liquid bulk originating from Russia. Liquid bulk volumes were down even by 68% in Q2. However, the number of passengers increased by 13% y/y in Q2. The passenger business has now reached 75% of the pre-pandemic level. The number of vessel calls decreased by 8% y/y which could have small negative effect for the operating profit in Q2. The amount of cruise vessels in Q2 was 44 compared to 68 year earlier in Q2. We have forecasted adjusted EBITDA of EUR 14m in Q2 but preliminary traffic statistics could indicate a bit lower EBITDA for the quarter.

The company may not be able to give very positive outlook for the full year due to economic uncertainty and Russian sanctions. Market (Refinitiv) consensus for net sales in 2023 has been EUR 124m (2022: EUR 122m), and EUR 31m (2022: EUR 31m) for operating profit. The combined effect from improving passenger traffic and declining cargo traffic could lead market consensus for the full year 2023 to be downgraded by few percents we believe.

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