Incap: Market situation unfavourable in Q3 - Nordea

A trade war between the US and India created headwind for Incap's operations in Q3. Net sales in Q3 were 8% below LSEG Data & Analytics consensus, while the adjusted EBIT margin was 11.1%,  compared to consensus of 12.4% . The company anticipates an improvement in Q4 and confirmed its full-year guidance. We still downgrade our net sales forecast for 2025 by 3%. However, a possible trade deal between the US and India could be a clear positive trigger for Incap in Q4. Our fair value range remains at EUR 11.1-13.6 per share, based on our DCF analysis and backed by a peer group comparison. We forecast 14% revenue growth for next year due to the low comparison point and in view of a possible agreement between the US and India in their trade negotiations. Incap's 2025E-26E P/E and EV/EBIT combined are currently ~37% below the peer group median. Uncertainty related to orders could sustain a valuation discount to the peer group.

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