Suominen: Strong cash flows in Q3 - Nordea

Suominen Q3 comparable EBITDA of EUR 3.4m and net sales of EUR 100m were pre-announced in connection with the profit warning. Given the slower than expected market recovery following the supply chain disruptions in H1, the company lowered its guidance on 15 October and now expects comparable EBITDA to decline from EUR 17m in 2024. FX had EUR 3.7m negative impact on sales and EUR 0.3m positive impact on EBITDA. Two incidents at US plants impacted net sales by EUR -5.4m while those had EUR -2.8m negative impact on comparable EBITDA. Hence, new guidance implies flat to declining underlying EBITDA for Q4, we calculate. Initially, we expect consensus to trim estimates to match the new guidance while view strong cash flows as positive. Accelerated cost savings measures could support 2026 estimates despite slow market recovery.

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