Svedbergs Group: First glimpse of the Netherlands - ABG

Q1 report due 24 April
Q1e net sales SEK 554m, EBITA SEK 78m
Trading at 8x NTM EV/EBITA vs 10y avg. of 6x-11x


The Nordic markets remain soft

From what we can tell from accessible macro datapoints (ROT applications, build starts, house transactions), the Nordic house renovation market remains subdued by the tough consumer climate. For Nordic brands Svedbergs, Macro Design and Cassoe, this means business is challenging for now, and we thus forecast an 18% organic decline in the Svedbergs brand in Q1. We expect Roper Rhodes and Thebalux to perform better, for a group sales growth of 17% (-5% org.). Price hikes in Roper Rhodes that lifted the H2'23 gross margin significantly lead us to a 45% gross margin in Q1, +360bp y-o-y. We attribute the 120bp sequential decline to a lack of supplier bonuses in Q1, which we assess lifted Q4 gross margins slightly.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2024/4/svedbergs-group---first-glimpse-of-the-netherlands/