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Etteplan: Still a bumpy road ahead - Evli Research

Timely cost reduction actions kept profitability strong

Etteplan reported Q2 results that were above expectations given the challenging circumstances. Revenue was in line with expectations at EUR 62.9m (EUR 63.3m/63.3m Evli/cons.), decreasing 2.2% y/y and organically 11.3% y/y. EBIT was clearly better than expected, at EUR 5.4m (Evli/cons. EUR 3.2m/3.8m). Profitability was aided by timely actions made to reduce operating costs. With operating costs declining faster than cash flow from sales, Etteplan posted an exceptionally strong operating cash flow of EUR 18.0m (Q2/19: 8.8m). The uncertainty in customer demand remains but we interpret comments by the company pointing to expectations of some recovery in the second half of the year. Etteplan reinstituted a guidance for 2020, expecting sales to light decrease slightly or remain at 2019 levels and EBIT to decrease compared to 2019.

The hit to 2020 figures not as bad as feared based on H1

With the higher than anticipated reduction in operating expenses we adjust our 2020 EBIT estimate to EUR 18.1m (prev. 14.3m), while keeping our revenue estimates largely intact. We expect 2020 revenue of EUR 258.3m for an estimated organic decline of some 7%. Our estimates assume similar capacity decreases due to temporary layoffs in Q3 as Q2 and roughly half the decrease in Q4. Visibility into the coming years is weak but we expect to see Etteplan returning to growth in 2021, as although a second wave of the pandemic may cause challenges, lessons learned during the first wave should result in a lesser strain on both Etteplan and customers.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 8.7 (8.3)

Based on our revised estimates we adjust our target price to EUR 8.7 (8.3), for a 2020e P/E of ~16x, which we currently consider fair given the elevated uncertainty. We retain our HOLD-rating.


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