Pricer - 75% sales growth in 2020 – what pandemic?
Sales +186% y-o-y (+2% beat), 10.2% EBIT margin Minor estimate revisions 2019-2023e sales CAGR of 20%, 27x ‘22e EV/EBIT Sales in line, but -12% EBIT miss amid lower capitalisations Pricer had a strong ending to 2020. Sales reached SEK 680m (+2% vs. ABGSCe), corresponding to y-o-y growth of 186%. This was driven by Best Buy order deliveries combined with solid underlying progress.
Gross profit was SEK 153m (-3% vs. ABGSCe) for a margin of 22.5%. In Q4’19, the gross margin was 36.3%.
The contraction stemmed from: 1) sales mix (i.e. an increased share of large-order deliveries), 2) increased freight costs due to distressed supply chains, and 3) FX. EBIT was SEK 69m, corresponding to a margin of 10.2% and y-o-y growth of 189%.
Although EBIT was -12% vs. our forecast, we still view it as robust given that the miss largely stemmed from lower capitalised development costs (about -50% vs. Q4’19).
We expect the market to remain strong in 2021 The ESL market has recently been strong. Pricer’s competitor SES-Imagotag recently upgraded its 2021 outlook, while Pricer reported an underlying order intake (i.e. order intake excl.
announced orders) of +36% y-o-y in Q4. This was 15% above our forecast, and will support Pricer’s near-term sales. However, as we already expect improved underlying order intake in 2021-2022e, we make only minor changes to our forecasts.
Expect declining sales in 2021e, but 15% growth in ‘22e We expect the market to remain healthy over the coming years and estimate Pricer reaching 2023 sales of SEK 2bn, corresponding to a ’19-23e CAGR of 20%. Pricer faces some very challenging comps for ‘21e, and we therefore estimate -13% sales growth y-o-y. On our estimates, Pricer is trading at 35-22x EV/EBIT ’21e-‘23e, while delivering c.
20% ROIC and 3-4% dividend yields..