Q1 EBITDA margin in line with ABGSCe We lower ’21e EBIT by 14% 17x ‘21e EV/EBITDA on 37% ’20-‘23e EBITDA CAGR Slight sales miss, but profitability in line Stockwik delivered strong sales growth driven by recent acquisitions, but somewhat weaker than we expected. Sales were SEK 119m, up 23% y-o-y but -13% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 137m. The estimate miss was mainly driven by the Property Services segment (c.
50% of total sales) with sales declining 14% y-o-y (vs. ABGSCe +19% y-o-y). Property Services is characterized by a certain randomness in the business.
An example of this is the randomness in exactly when a water pipe breaks and needs to be repaired. Consequently, certain fluctuations in sales are to be expected from quarter to quarter, which partly explains the sales miss this quarter. Meanwhile, Stockwik reported an EBITDA margin in line with our estimate, 11.
1% (6. 3%) vs. ABGSCe 10.
9%. Due to the sales miss, however, EBITDA came in slightly lower than expected, at SEK 13. 1m (-12% vs ABGSCe 14.
9m). Finally, R12m pro forma sales and EBITDA were SEK 579. 5m and SEK 65.
7m, respectively, corresponding to a R12m pro forma EBITDA margin of 11. 3%. Increasing our D&A assumptions We leave our organic and M&A sales growth estimates for ’21e-’23e relatively unchanged.
However, based on the Q1’21 numbers in isolation, we cut our sales estimates by c. 3% for ‘21e, ‘22e and ‘23e. Meanwhile, Q1’21 D&A/sales came in somewhat higher than we had anticipated.
We therefore raise our D&A assumptions by c. 9% for ’21e. Consequently, our EBIT estimate for ’21e is reduced by c.
14%. Trading at 17x ’21e EV/EBITDA with room for more M&A Stockwik is trading at ~17x ’21e EV/EBITDA with a c. 37% ’20-‘23e EBITDA CAGR and potential to add more through M&A given the Q2’21e cash position of c.
SEK 260m. Nevertheless, we lower our fair value range slightly to SEK 135-255 (143-264) per share based on lower EBITDA estimates and peer multiplies.
