We expect Q1’21 EBITDA of SEK -4m Q2’21 bookings likely to be below CBE levels H2’21 to be better, but still suppressed We expect Q1’21 EBITDA of SEK -4m Suezmax market spot rates in Q1’21 have averaged ~USD 8. 7kpd (up 35% q-o-q and down 84% y-o-y), well below the CBE of ~USD 25kpd. MR tankers were at ~USD 6. 3kpd per day (down 1% q-o-q and down 66% y-o-y), also beneath their CBE of ~USD 17kpd.
In our estimates, we have slightly reduced our expected CCOR Suezmax tanker Q1’21 realised rates to USD 13kpd (USD 15kpd) and maintain product tankers at USD 10kpd. As such, we reduce our Q1’21e EBITDA to SEK -4m (SEK 1m). Q2’21 bookings likely to be below CBE levels The market continues to be suppressed as we head into the summer season, with Q2’21TD Suezmax and MR tankers averaging ~USD 10.
5kpd and ~USD 7. 3kpd, respectively. As such, we expect Q2’21 bookings from CCOR to be at levels around ~USD 14kpd for Suezmax tankers, and ~USD 10kpd for the product tankers.
Netting our estimate revisions for both Q1 and Q2, our new 2021e EBITDA estimate is SEK 5m (SEK 17m). Our estimate changes for 2022e and 2023e are primarily caused by FX. Market improving in H2’21, but will likely remain suppressed OPEC+ has continued to increase oil volumes delivered to the market.
Oil demand remains below pre-COVID levels, however, and the fleet size continues to grow. Therefore, while we expect there to be a market recovery from today’s opex level rates in H2’21, we expect rates to remain under pressure. The TC market is currently in line with our expectations, with suppressed 1yr TC rates of USD 17.
5kpd and USD 13kpd for Suezmaxes and MRs, respectively.
