Moment Group - Rough H1’21e, with likely recovery in H2’21e

Q4 EBIT SEK -31m vs. ABGSCe SEK -51m H1’21e likely to be weak, with sharp recovery in H2’21e EV/EBIT ~17x on ’22e if we see a return to ’19 levels Q4’20 continued to be pressured by COVID-19 Q4 marks the end to a very tough 2020 for Moment Group. The year started out strong, with high levels of pre-paid ticket revenues at the start of ’20, but much of Moment’s business had to be shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which continued throughout Q4’20 due to the second wave. Net sales amounted to SEK 50m, -23.

3% vs. ABGSCe, for negative y-o-y growth of 85. 3%.

Moment has done a remarkable job in terms of cutting costs and establishing an agile cost base, with opex down to SEK 117m in Q4’20 vs. SEK 389m in Q4’19. This has resulted in Q4’20 EBIT of SEK -31m, versus ABGSCe SEK -51m.

Sharp recovery possible in H2’21e if financing is found As it currently stands, we think that H1’21e will continue to result in very challenging conditions for Moment Group, with the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines determining when Moment will be able to recover. Moment’s management has utilised all available government aid, raised additional capital through a preferential rights issue and a directed share issue, and renegotiated the terms of its outstanding bond in order to survive this challenging period. Management estimates that the aforementioned efforts will secure the company’s liquidity if operations can be reinitiated during the summer/fall of 2021.

In our estimates, we factor in a sharp recovery in H2’21e. EV/EBIT 17-13x for ’22e-’23e Based on our updated estimates and at the current share price, Moment is trading at an EV/sales of 1. 0-0.

5x for ’21e-’23e, and an EV/EBIT of 17-13x for ’22e-’23e. In terms of ’22e, we factor in a return to 2019 levels for the top line, but see Moment’s new and flexible cost base resulting in improved margins compared to 2019.